ferrite magnets
The domestic rare earth market rose sharply in July
Aug 4,2021.

Since the beginning of July, the prices of major rare earth products have risen rapidly, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide, terbium oxide, and dysprosium oxide rising by about 24%, 23%, and 11% respectively. The low season for rare earths this year is not weak, and it is strongly driven by downstream demand such as new energy vehicles. The pre-requisite effect of replenishment is obvious. Due to the advent of the rainy season and the aggravation of the epidemic, the supply of rare earths in Myanmar has been disturbed. Superimposed on the recent national environmental protection inspections, some smelting and separation plants have cut production and stopped production. Supply and demand basically form strong support in the face of rare earth prices.

Rare earth permanent magnet materials (NdFeB) account for about 80% of the output value of the downstream of the rare earth industry chain, and are mainly used in traditional automobiles, new energy automobiles, wind power, energy-saving inverter air conditioners and other fields. The amount of NdFeB for new energy vehicles is about 3-5 kg, which is 3-5 times that of traditional cars. Assuming that the output of new energy vehicles will reach 18 million in 2025, the corresponding NdFeB demand will reach 54,000 to 90,000 tons in 2021. In 2025, the demand for neodymium-iron-boron in the new energy vehicle industry will grow at an average annual rate of about 40%. In 2025, new energy vehicles may become the largest downstream application of rare earths.

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The demand for new energy vehicles has begun to explode. The downstream demand for carbon-neutral wind power and energy-saving inverter air conditioners continues to pick up. The downstream demand for rare earths is expected to continue to improve; during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the domestic rare earth supply will still be restricted by the total mining index. Supply-side high-pressure policies such as crackdowns and environmental protection will continue. It is expected that the increase in overseas supply in the next five years will be relatively limited, and the global supply and demand of rare earths may be in a tight balance for a long time. Raise the forecast for the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in 2021 to 800,000 yuan/ton, and maintain the forecast for the high prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide at 3 million yuan/ton and 15 million yuan/ton. The price of rare earths is expected to open up for a long time.

In recent years, the supply-side structural reform of the domestic rare earth industry has continued to advance, and applications such as downstream magnetic materials have developed rapidly, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are expected to enter a virtuous cycle.

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